Rising Visa Costs & AI Adoption Accelerate Growth of India’s Global Capability Centres
Key Highlights
- US H-1B visa fees spike to $100,000, creating pressure on companies dependent on skilled foreign talent.
- India’s Global Capability Centres (GCCs) poised to benefit from offshore shift.
- AI integration and visa restrictions force US firms to reassess labor strategies.
- India could host over 2,200 GCCs by 2030, nearing $100 billion in market size.
H-1B Visa Fee Hike Sparks Strategic Shift
US President Donald Trump’s move to raise the H-1B visa application fee from a range of $2,000–$5,000 to a staggering $100,000 has triggered a major rethink among US firms. This policy shift is expected to drive more critical, high-end work to India, where Global Capability Centres (GCCs) are increasingly seen as resilient, scalable alternatives to overseas talent.
On top of this, a new bill reintroduced by US senators seeks to tighten rules for both H-1B and L-1 visas, citing employer abuse and loopholes, further escalating uncertainty for tech and service firms.
India’s GCCs: From Support to Strategic Innovation
India, now home to over 1,700 GCCs — more than half of the global total — has evolved far beyond back-office support. Today, these centres lead in AI development, cybersecurity, drug discovery, and even automotive design innovation.
“GCCs are uniquely positioned for this moment. They serve as a ready in-house engine,” said Rohan Lobo, Partner and GCC Industry Leader at Deloitte India.
Firms with exposure to US federal contracts, especially in finance and technology, are accelerating their shift. Lobo predicts that GCCs will increasingly handle strategic and innovation-led mandates, reinforcing India’s role as a global talent hub.
A Gold Rush of Offshoring
Lalit Ahuja, CEO of ANSR — a firm instrumental in setting up GCCs for companies like FedEx and Target — described the current trend as a “gold rush” that’s gaining speed.
“There is a sense of urgency,” Ahuja said. “Plans are already underway.”
With major H-1B visa sponsors like Amazon, Apple, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, JPMorgan Chase, and Walmart already running significant operations in India, this transition may simply be a question of when — not if.
Alternative Nearshoring Options on the Table
While India stands to benefit the most, other countries like Mexico, Colombia, and Canada are also emerging as nearshoring options. However, India’s mature tech ecosystem, cost advantage, and talent pool make it the preferred destination for now.
Challenges on the Horizon: The HIRE Act & Trade Tensions
Despite optimism, caution remains. The proposed HIRE Act, which could impose a 25% tax on firms outsourcing work, has introduced uncertainty. If passed, it could significantly disrupt India’s $283-billion IT services export industry.
“For now, we are observing and studying, and being ready for outcomes,” said the India head of a US drugmaker’s GCC.
India-US trade relations are increasingly strained, with services now under scrutiny, not just goods. The long-term impact will depend on evolving legislation and how firms balance cost-saving with compliance.
Conclusion: Visa Policy Driving a Strategic Realignment
Visa curbs, coupled with the AI revolution and global demand for innovation, are reshaping how US companies manage talent. India’s expanding GCC network offers a solution that blends cost efficiency, domain expertise, and strategic depth.
As the H-1B visa becomes less accessible, US firms are not just outsourcing — they are relocating innovation.
According to a recent Nomura report:
“Lost revenues from H-1B visa-reliant businesses could be somewhat supplanted by higher services exports through GCCs.”
