New research finds increased risk of non‑communicable disease deaths in India from 2010‑2019, especially among women and older adults.
Key Findings from the Study
- Between 2010 and 2019, India saw a rise in deaths from non‑communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, and chronic respiratory illnesses.
- For women, the risk increased by 2.1%, and for men by 0.1%.
- Women over 40 and men over 55 showed the highest mortality risk.
Comparison & Trends
- In 2001, the probability of a woman dying from NCDs by age 80 was 46.7%, dropped slightly to 46.6% in 2011, then rose to 48.7% by 2019.
- For men, the increase was smaller, attributed in part to better diagnosis and treatment of several NCDs (e.g. ischemic heart disease, liver cirrhosis).
Diseases Driving the Increase
- Significant contributors included ischemic heart disease and diabetes (including kidney disease due to diabetes).
- There were declines in mortality from liver cirrhosis, some cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, and certain circulatory diseases for men.
Data Quality & Caveats
- Authors caution that data for India is of very low quality, meaning findings are subject to significant uncertainty.
- Mortality risk estimates depend heavily on available data, which may under‑report or misclassify causes of death.
Global Context
- Across the world, most countries are seeing declines in NCD mortality rates.
- However, India is among the nations where the risk for NCD death increased, especially for women.
- The probability of dying from NCDs rose in 33 of 185 countries for women and 38 for men; it decreased in 147+ countries for women and 152+ for men.
Why This Matters & What Can Be Done
- Rising NCD mortality signals changing public health priorities: lifestyle, urbanization, environmental risks, and health system capacity are all factors.
- Early diagnosis, better treatment, stronger healthcare infrastructure, and preventive measures (diet, exercise, pollution control) are essential.
- Ensuring data quality and strengthening disease surveillance will help produce more reliable estimates and guide policy.
India’s growing burden of chronic disease deaths underscores a shift in health challenges—from infectious illness to long‑term conditions—and it offers a critical warning: without aggressive prevention, investment in health systems, and attention to social determinants, the gains made in lowering mortality elsewhere may be lost.
