Washington sees “encouraging progress” in talks as two parallel issues advance: a reciprocal trade pact and India’s Russian oil imports
The United States has signalled that a long-awaited trade agreement with India could be concluded before the end of 2025, as discussions move at an “encouraging” pace, according to a senior U.S. official.
Key Developments
- The official noted two fronts of discussion: a reciprocal trade negotiation and concerns over India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
- “We’ve had a lot of positive developments with them recently,” the official said, adding that results may come “before the end of the year.”
- Bilateral trade between India and the U.S. reached around US$190 billion in 2024.
Why It Matters
A trade deal between the two countries could reshape global supply-chains, especially for tech, services and energy. For India, it offers the possibility of easier access to the U.S. market and reduced tariffs. For the U.S., it means tapping into India’s large market while stabilising strategic ties.
Remaining Hurdles
- India remains cautious about fully opening its sensitive sectors such as dairy, agriculture and services.
- The Russian oil imports continue to be a point of tension with the U.S., and any deal is likely to address this directly.
- Negotiations, though advanced, still require resolution of detailed terms and reciprocation mechanisms.
Outlook
Officials believe the deal can be signed by December 2025, assuming no major disruptions. Markets have already started reacting favourably to the possibility, and stakeholders in both countries highlight strong momentum.
